RIP

On Sunday November 12, 1978, my mother sat in the chapel of this building having early contractions that would later that night bring me into the world. My mother went into labor in this building! I was blessed in this building. My parents had also met in this building.

Several years later, this building was the center of my social life and church service for six years while living in Boston. Those six years have probably been some of the most influential up to this point in my life, and so many memories are directly or indirectly linked to this building.  I'm sad that it's gone.

Many of you have already expressed your thoughts today, and some of you were even in services there today and watched the building burn down. I've appreciated hearing all your stories. I just felt I needed to add mine, too.

Why this is important.

If you read something like this: Flu overhyped?

Think about this:

Fact 1: The vast majority of people who get the flu recover without incident. The rate of death from flu is very low.

Fact 2: Influenza is extremely common, because it spreads easily and quickly.

Fact 1 x Fact 2 = Low rate of mortality x high prevalence = lots of dead people.

Example: Once upon a time, a new strain of influenza emerged that had a 2% case fatality rate. That means that 98% of people (a vast majority) recovered. When that happened, it killed 40 million people in less than 1 year (winter of 1918-1919).

(Aside: Yes, that happened a long time ago, and medical care is much better now.  For us.  Not true for many parts of the world.  Regardless, there's a long way to come down from 40 million dead people.)

Example: 'Regular' flu is much less fatal than 2%, but still kills an average of 36,000 people every single winter.

Fact 3: Every strain of influenza is different and influenza viruses mutate very quickly and easily... thus, what you think you know now may not apply for very long. Even among 'regular' flu, which is actual 3 different viruses that currently circulate every winter, we know that one causes much more death, one is pretty mild, and the other is mostly only severe in kids. Thus, anything is possible.

Fact 4: There is currently a strain of influenza called H5N1 (also known as bird flu) that occasionally infects people, mostly in Asia so far, and has a case fatality of approximately 60%. Yes, that would be 30 times as fatal as the strain that killed 40 million people in 1918. Thankfully it does not spread easily (yet) in people. (It does, however, among birds. Pretty much sucks to be a chicken in Asia right now.)

Fact 5: This swine flu (2009 H1N1) had never been seen before ever. Anywhere. In anyone. Although the first 5 cases that launched this investigation were relatively mild, how do you be sure it's not a 2% case fatality with only 5 cases? Or even 100 cases? We already know that we have better surveillance for mild illness than severe illness, oddly enough. So even 1,000 cases is not necessarily representative, if they're only testing outpatients. You can't find what you aren't looking for.

Fact 3 x Fact 4 x Fact 5 = It would have been irresponsible for us not to react with an abundance of caution.

Example: We have all seen what happens when you underestimate the potential destruction of a relatively common phenomenon (i.e., Hurricane Katrina)

Fact 6: "The Government" (except for Joe Biden) has never implied anything else. The media have been ridiculous. But, since we (thankfully) do not operate a state-run media in this country, my coworkers and I have absolutely no control over how it gets spun on CNN.

Fact 7: In 1918, there was a relatively mild wave of influenza in the late spring of 1918 before it came back that fall and wiped out 40 million people.

Fact 8: We have absolutely no idea what will happen this fall. 

Fact 7 x Fact 8 = The time for us to be concerned is not over.  Maybe nothing will happen again in the fall.  I would expect, though, that you all would want us to be prepared for the possibility of something bad. Even if it's not 'the big one', a fourth strain of influenza would still mean more people are going to die this winter than would have otherwise. 

(I have many more facts, but I'll stop here. I also have a lot of opinions!  I have spent the last two weeks working 10-15 hours a day on this without a day off, and I do know people are starting to wonder why, so this is my answer. )