RIP

On Sunday November 12, 1978, my mother sat in the chapel of this building having early contractions that would later that night bring me into the world. My mother went into labor in this building! I was blessed in this building. My parents had also met in this building.

Several years later, this building was the center of my social life and church service for six years while living in Boston. Those six years have probably been some of the most influential up to this point in my life, and so many memories are directly or indirectly linked to this building.  I'm sad that it's gone.

Many of you have already expressed your thoughts today, and some of you were even in services there today and watched the building burn down. I've appreciated hearing all your stories. I just felt I needed to add mine, too.

Why this is important.

If you read something like this: Flu overhyped?

Think about this:

Fact 1: The vast majority of people who get the flu recover without incident. The rate of death from flu is very low.

Fact 2: Influenza is extremely common, because it spreads easily and quickly.

Fact 1 x Fact 2 = Low rate of mortality x high prevalence = lots of dead people.

Example: Once upon a time, a new strain of influenza emerged that had a 2% case fatality rate. That means that 98% of people (a vast majority) recovered. When that happened, it killed 40 million people in less than 1 year (winter of 1918-1919).

(Aside: Yes, that happened a long time ago, and medical care is much better now.  For us.  Not true for many parts of the world.  Regardless, there's a long way to come down from 40 million dead people.)

Example: 'Regular' flu is much less fatal than 2%, but still kills an average of 36,000 people every single winter.

Fact 3: Every strain of influenza is different and influenza viruses mutate very quickly and easily... thus, what you think you know now may not apply for very long. Even among 'regular' flu, which is actual 3 different viruses that currently circulate every winter, we know that one causes much more death, one is pretty mild, and the other is mostly only severe in kids. Thus, anything is possible.

Fact 4: There is currently a strain of influenza called H5N1 (also known as bird flu) that occasionally infects people, mostly in Asia so far, and has a case fatality of approximately 60%. Yes, that would be 30 times as fatal as the strain that killed 40 million people in 1918. Thankfully it does not spread easily (yet) in people. (It does, however, among birds. Pretty much sucks to be a chicken in Asia right now.)

Fact 5: This swine flu (2009 H1N1) had never been seen before ever. Anywhere. In anyone. Although the first 5 cases that launched this investigation were relatively mild, how do you be sure it's not a 2% case fatality with only 5 cases? Or even 100 cases? We already know that we have better surveillance for mild illness than severe illness, oddly enough. So even 1,000 cases is not necessarily representative, if they're only testing outpatients. You can't find what you aren't looking for.

Fact 3 x Fact 4 x Fact 5 = It would have been irresponsible for us not to react with an abundance of caution.

Example: We have all seen what happens when you underestimate the potential destruction of a relatively common phenomenon (i.e., Hurricane Katrina)

Fact 6: "The Government" (except for Joe Biden) has never implied anything else. The media have been ridiculous. But, since we (thankfully) do not operate a state-run media in this country, my coworkers and I have absolutely no control over how it gets spun on CNN.

Fact 7: In 1918, there was a relatively mild wave of influenza in the late spring of 1918 before it came back that fall and wiped out 40 million people.

Fact 8: We have absolutely no idea what will happen this fall. 

Fact 7 x Fact 8 = The time for us to be concerned is not over.  Maybe nothing will happen again in the fall.  I would expect, though, that you all would want us to be prepared for the possibility of something bad. Even if it's not 'the big one', a fourth strain of influenza would still mean more people are going to die this winter than would have otherwise. 

(I have many more facts, but I'll stop here. I also have a lot of opinions!  I have spent the last two weeks working 10-15 hours a day on this without a day off, and I do know people are starting to wonder why, so this is my answer. )

On hiatus.

This is my life for the time being: Human Swine Influenza Investigation

There are already a lot of stories in the press and a ton of rumors. If you're curious, that link is the best source of accurate information.

Weird.

When I came home from work last night, I walked across the kitchen to turn on the light and found a random picture of some middle-aged man placed very neatly on top of one burner on my stove.  I didn't put it there, and I have no idea who the man is.  Cue creepy music.

(Somehow this being the picture made it all the more creepy... Hello sex-offender registry.)

In reality it was nothing. My landlord had been over looking at my fridge (which is toast, and currently my freezer is housing some very thawed, very raw meat... yuck!), and most things near it had been moved out of the way.  Given the date stamp on the back of the picture and the thick layer of dust, it was no doubt found behind the fridge.

(I did, however, subsequently check all possible hiding places in my apartment, just to reassure myself. I'm only recently to the point where I can use a bathroom if the shower curtain is closed. I'm a little bit of a pansy.)

I have been a bit skittish these days, though. There's been a stabbing, a couple muggings, and some apartment break-ins near where I work, and I'm reminded that in tough economic times, things are not likely to get safer.  Not to be a downer, just a reminder for everyone to be careful.


P.S. This was my car a while back. Broken into three weeks after I moved here, actually... my own personal welcome to Atlanta! Moral of this story? Be careful where you park in certain neighborhoods when you go out to eat.

Oh, and that it takes the Atlanta PD approximately 90 minutes to respond and take a 15 second statement, leaving you to sit and wait in a not-so-great neighborhood nearing midnight. Luckily I had friends waiting with me. I also have never eaten in that neighborhood since :)

Welcome, spring.

In honor of the first day of spring on Friday (well, not actually in honor of, it was more correlation than causation), I went camping with some friends up in the "mountains" by the Georgia/North Carolina border. The official season change was a significant psychological barrier for me, though, as I don't really comprehend the idea of winter camping.

In reality that one day made little difference, it was still 28 degrees overnight (I checked). Yes, I voluntarily slept in a tent in 28 degree weather (in my defense, weather.com predicted 34). I slept in two layers of clothing, plus warm socks, plus a hoodie, plus a 0 degree mummy bag, plus two extra blankets. Overkill, you might think. But, I was just about right. Maybe a bit on the chilly side a couple times during the night when the blankets slid off.

This is why I do not camp in winter. Welcome, spring.

(Also, apologies for no pictures.  My camera battery was dead.  I blame the sub-freezing temperature.)

An open letter, redux.

To Whom it May Concern,

Just in case there is something equivalent to karma in the doctrine to which I ascribe, I realize that there is now a very long flight in my future wedged in the middle seat between a screaming infant and a very drunk passenger with poor personal hygeine. Remember, though, that I have no cute babies to show off on this blog. This is what I've got.

Sincerely,
Carrie

An open letter.

(Yes, I'm jumping on the bandwagon.)


Dear Airline Passengers Who Sit in Coach,

You might think you should be jealous as you've watched me get upgraded to first class for the second consecutive time. But, just think about that extra leg room and attentive service, those warm washcloths and complimentary meals. At some point this frequent flier status from uncharacteristically heavy work travel will expire, and I will be forced to rejoin you. But, I will have had my eyes opened. I will have tasted the sweet. Pity me.

With love,
Carrie